Recession Update July 2009

June sees a small fall in total redundancies
In June a total of 9834 redundancies were announced in Unite companies,
down on the May total of 10081. This latest downturn is the lowest reported
figure since the 7258 redundancies in October 08 and is the second
consecutive month that there has been a fall but a smaller one then previous.
Is this the first sign of a flattening out of redundancies?
The scale of redundancy announcements is also coming down. In the last
month, just 38 companies were added to the database, which is down on the
May figure of 52 and significantly on the April figure of 80 and March figure of
105.



Forecast commentary
Forecasting is a notoriously dangerous occupation for economists but recent
statistics and survey results have led to speculation that the recession has
bottomed out and that the “green shoots” of recovery are just around the
corner.


For Unite members the key figures are about employment and inflation and
here is where the reports from around the regions give little hope for
improvements on the jobs front. Whilst our report shows a small decline in
the rate of jobs being lost each month, the economic forecasters are fairly
unanimous in the view that there is a lot more job losses to come.


To end on a positive note the share of the economy is forecast by Deloitte’s
to change as a result of the nature if this recession. Whilst we have already
seen the negative impact on the Financials Services share of the UK
economy, it is anticipated that this could be replaced by a growth in the
manufacturing share of the economy to as high as 15% from the current level
of 11% benefitting from the lower value of the pound.

To read the full report click here. http://www.unitetheunion.com/pdf/Recession_Update_Jul09.pdf